# Macroeconomic Scenario Analysis Software | Gladio

Source: https://www.vcesr.com/gladio

# GLADIO

Gladio is macroeconomic scenario analysis software for country risk assessment, policy analysis and planning. Compare how energy disruptions, trade shocks and other events could affect output, inflation, trade and currencies against a baseline.

[Discuss a country scenario ](mailto:contact@vcesr.com?subject=Gladio%20country%20analysis)

## Assess a country’s exposure to disruption

A country assessment may begin with a war, an energy interruption or disrupted shipping. Gladio lets you examine these questions through economic scenarios, representing a disturbance through changes to productive capacity, costs, trade or financial conditions.

### War and regional instability

Examine exposure to disrupted production and trade. Trace how a disturbance in one country could affect the economy you are analysing through its trading relationships, and compare assumptions about the scale and persistence of the disruption.

### Energy and commodity disruption

Explore how energy interruptions or changes in input costs could affect economic activity. Identify the relevant exposure and represent the disturbance through supported changes to capacity, costs or trade conditions.

### Trade and shipping

Assess the effects of higher transport costs or disrupted trade. Examine how the country’s recorded trade exposure and the assumed ability to substitute suppliers change the resulting economic response.

### Monetary and sector shocks

Compare tighter or looser monetary conditions where the country has independent modelled monetary policy. Use measured sector shares where available to examine disruptions to manufacturing, agriculture or services and supported combinations of shocks.

National shock origins

19

Quarters per response

12

Scenario options

14

Historical GDP comparisons

32

## Follow the effects into the country you analyse

The shock’s origin and the country you inspect are separate choices. Study a domestic disruption, or examine what an event in a trading partner could mean for the country you work with.

Use the map to inspect country responses over twelve quarters. Compare the path with its baseline and follow changes in output, inflation, trade and currencies. Quarterly results tables provide the values behind the charts.

This supports assessments of how exposure could develop over time: where the initial pressure falls, how it spreads and how the response changes as the disturbance persists or recedes.

Economic outcomes in the global workspace
| Measure | Comparison |
| --- | --- |
| GDP | Percent change from baseline |
| Inflation | Annual-rate change in percentage points |
| Imports | Change in nominal trade value |
| Exports | Change in nominal trade value |
| Currency | Change in local-currency units per US dollar |

## Compare the assumptions that matter to your assessment

A country outlook depends on the disturbance and the response to it. Compare alternative assumptions to see which outcomes persist across scenarios and which depend on a particular choice.

### Severity and duration

Change the size of a disturbance and how long it lasts. Low, Moderate and High settings let you compare how different assumptions alter the economic path.

### Recovery and transmission

Adjust the recovery path and examine how the effects travel through trading partners. Compare a short interruption with a disruption that continues to constrain activity.

### Economic responses

Examine how the results depend on monetary conditions or the assumed ability to substitute suppliers. Use these comparisons to identify the assumptions that drive the conclusion.

### Illustrative comparison: higher import costs

Choose an origin and an importing economy, then compare a short rise in import costs with a more persistent one. Inspect whether the longer scenario prolongs inflation pressure or changes the output path. Compare import and export values alongside the exchange rate: a change in nominal trade value can reflect both prices and quantities. Try a different supplier substitution assumption and see which conclusions still hold. This is a scenario design, with outcomes conditional on the selected inputs.

For help choosing or reviewing a model, see [econometric modelling and model review](https://www.vcesr.com/services/econometric-modelling).

Saved scenario links retain the inputs and view settings for review. Data and scenario versions remain attached to the comparison, and changed versions are flagged when it is recomputed.

## Ethiopia example

This Ethiopia example brings together evidence on conflict, electricity, oil, commodities and shipping. Examine the recorded exposures and the assumptions connecting them to economic effects.

The example puts country context alongside the scenario. It shows how to examine which channels are relevant to an event and how exposures relate to surrounding economies.

[![An Ethiopia example in Gladio showing the Tigray war scenario, impact map, twelve-quarter response chart and economic results for Ethiopia.](https://www.vcesr.com/assets/gladio-ethiopia-1920.6a112f9f9a.webp)](https://www.vcesr.com/assets/gladio-ethiopia.45f6a50f28.jpg)

Ethiopia example[View full resolution ](https://www.vcesr.com/assets/gladio-ethiopia.45f6a50f28.jpg)

## Review the model against past disruptions

Historical comparisons provide a reference for examining how the model behaves. They use pre-event accounts and trade, with GDP differences measured against a specified forecast baseline.

### 2020 pandemic-era disruptions

15 country comparisons against the recorded forecast baseline.

### 2022 inflation and energy pressures

15 country comparisons of GDP forecast gaps.

### Japan’s 2011 earthquake

A comparison with the April 2011 GDP forecast revision.

### Kenya’s 2017 drought and credit conditions

A comparison with the April 2017 GDP forecast revision.

The historical gaps reflect concurrent shocks, policy responses, forecast error and revisions. The comparisons fit annual GDP level differences. Following-year recovery stays outside the fit where a comparable observation is available, so subsequent errors remain visible.

## Inspect the evidence behind the scenario

Gladio uses a joint multi-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The global calibration combines common 2023 national accounts with recorded trade exposure and a residual world economy.

### Country data and exposure

National accounts and published trade records calibrate country size and exposure. The calibration view records sources, reconciliation and coverage exclusions so you can review the basis for an assessment.

### Explicit scenario assumptions

Disturbances and behavioural parameters are model inputs. Changes to timing, policy response or supplier substitution produce economic paths conditional on those choices.

### Model checks

Equation and accounting checks test whether the model solves consistently. Historical comparisons show fit and recovery errors, and missing reference observations remain unavailable.

## Discuss a country scenario

[Contact VCESR ](mailto:contact@vcesr.com?subject=Gladio%20country%20analysis)