# Econometric Modelling & Model Review | VCESR

Source: https://www.vcesr.com/services/econometric-modelling

# Econometric modelling, forecasting and model review

We build and review econometric models for teams that need to forecast an outcome, compare scenarios or understand how a result depends on its assumptions.

[Discuss your model](https://www.vcesr.com/contact?service=econometric-modelling)

## Build or review an economic model

### Build a model

We agree what to estimate, the decision horizon and which data can support the model. A project may include a baseline, scenarios, a forecast where appropriate, and an explanation of how the results change under different assumptions.

### Review an existing model

We examine data provenance, specification, validation and the sensitivity of the output. For a forecast, we look at out-of-sample performance where suitable data exist. For a scenario model, we check whether the assumptions and responses make sense for the decision it is meant to support.

## What you receive

Depending on the scope, handover can include a reproducible model or review findings, a table of assumptions, baseline and scenario outputs, and notes on uncertainty and limits. We discuss who will update the model and what they need to do so.

[See a worked input-cost comparison](https://www.vcesr.com/insights/input-cost-scenarios) with a baseline, two scenarios and a downloadable table. [Gladio](https://www.vcesr.com/gladio) shows an application for comparing national economic scenarios. The [Hermetic Engine](https://www.vcesr.com/hermetic-engine) model briefing covers the simulation used in VCESR's educational work.

## When should we use a scenario instead of a forecast?

A forecast estimates what may happen over a given horizon using stated information and a fitted or otherwise justified model. A scenario asks what follows if specified inputs or assumptions change. Use scenarios to test how a decision holds up across conditions; assign probabilities only if there is evidence for them.

Tell us the decision, time horizon, available data and whether your team already has a model. We can discuss which outputs would be useful.

[Discuss your model](https://www.vcesr.com/contact?service=econometric-modelling)