Arcana

Arcana combines causal modelling and digital twins to explore complex systems. Represent how a system works, examine interventions and compare the effects of decisions.

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Model the relationships behind an outcome

A causal model describes how a change in one part of a system could affect another. The mechanisms and assumptions behind those relationships form part of the model.

Relationships

Define the factors that matter and how they influence each other. For a delivery process, that might connect supplier delays, available stock, production and delivery dates.

Interventions

Explore a deliberate change to the system. Compare an extra shift, a different approval process or a revised service rule with the current approach.

Feedback and time

Consider delays, constraints and feedback where they matter. A shorter queue can attract more demand, changing the effect of the capacity added to reduce it.

Digital twins built around the system

A digital twin represents selected parts of a real system and how they behave. Its scope follows the question: what needs to be represented, over which period, and at what level of detail?

Business operations

Explore how supplier dependencies and production capacity affect delivery. A project could compare changes to staffing or inventory against the same demand, examining time, resource use and costs.

Organisations and processes

Represent how work moves between people and teams. Examine how approval steps, handovers or resource allocation could affect workload, completion times and the quality of a service.

Public services and infrastructure

Investigate the relationship between service demand, capacity and access. Compare a change to service locations or operating hours and examine its effects on waiting times and unmet demand.

Countries and economies

Model interactions between households, firms and institutions. Explore how policy changes, investment or external disruptions could affect production and public finances over time.

Compare two paths from the same starting point

Compare a proposed change with a baseline over the same period. Trace where the effects begin, how they spread and which outcomes improve or come under pressure.

Set the baseline

Define the system’s boundary and starting conditions using the available data. Record the assumptions needed to represent its current behaviour.

Change a decision or condition

Specify the intervention or disruption, when it starts and which parts of the system it affects. Keep other conditions consistent where the comparison requires it.

Read the difference

Examine the outcomes that matter to the decision. Look at effects across the system and over time, including consequences beyond the immediate target.

Examine the assumptions behind the results

The value of a model depends on how well its relationships and inputs represent the question being studied.

Evidence and mechanisms

Use observations, existing research and knowledge of the system to define relationships. Distinguish measured inputs from estimates and assumptions about how the system responds.

A pattern in the data can inform a model. Causal claims require evidence and attention to other possible explanations.

Sensitivity and validation

Check how conclusions change when uncertain inputs or relationships change. Compare model behaviour with available observations and examine where the representation needs improvement.

Identify which findings hold across plausible assumptions and which depend on choices that need further investigation.

What would you like to explore?

The system

Describe the process, organisation or wider system you want to model. Identify the parts that matter to your decision.

The question

Tell us which intervention or scenario you want to investigate and which outcomes you need to compare.

The evidence

Share what data, research or existing models you have. Tell us where evidence is missing or uncertain.

Talk to VCESR about Arcana

Tell us about your system and the decision you need to explore. We can discuss the scope of a causal model or digital twin.

Email VCESR