Econometric modelling, forecasting and model review
We build and review econometric models for teams that need to forecast an outcome, compare scenarios or understand how a result depends on its assumptions.
Build or review an economic model
Build a model
We agree what to estimate, the decision horizon and which data can support the model. A project may include a baseline, scenarios, a forecast where appropriate, and an explanation of how the results change under different assumptions.
Review an existing model
We examine data provenance, specification, validation and the sensitivity of the output. For a forecast, we look at out-of-sample performance where suitable data exist. For a scenario model, we check whether the assumptions and responses make sense for the decision it is meant to support.
What you receive
Depending on the scope, handover can include a reproducible model or review findings, a table of assumptions, baseline and scenario outputs, and notes on uncertainty and limits. We discuss who will update the model and what they need to do so.
See a worked input-cost comparison with a baseline, two scenarios and a downloadable table. Gladio shows an application for comparing national economic scenarios. The Hermetic Engine model briefing covers the simulation used in VCESR's educational work.
When should we use a scenario instead of a forecast?
A forecast estimates what may happen over a given horizon using stated information and a fitted or otherwise justified model. A scenario asks what follows if specified inputs or assumptions change. Use scenarios to test how a decision holds up across conditions; assign probabilities only if there is evidence for them.
Tell us the decision, time horizon, available data and whether your team already has a model. We can discuss which outputs would be useful.
Discuss your model